¿Hacia una nueva arquitectura financiera internacional?

The Mexican Presidential elections in the year 2000 promise to be an important step in the process of democratic transition initiated more than a decade ago. In this article, there is a description of the political system in force during seventy years, an explication of how its particular characteristics enabled it to persist for so long and it is argued that the consolidation and apparent inevitability of its central features (and not simply the hegemony of the dominant party) constitute serious obstacles for an effective, consensual transition. The most important dilemma which the Mexican political system now faces is how to design pacts which open out the road to a really democratic transformation, a process which does not coincide with the logic of party political confrontations.

The history of the Cuban child Elián González has not yet come to an end, but there are sufficient elements to enable us to analyze its vertiginous parabola. In this article, the author analyzes the transformation of Elián into a political symbol, a religious messenger, a liberating Messiah and finally, the proof of the most recent political setback of the Cuban Right in Miami. However, this setback, while it may be seen as another just another failure to be added to the vain attempts to overthrow the regime of Fidel Castro, is of particular importance because, for the first time, the United States government did not support the demands of this sector. This appears to mark the end of a prolonged period during which the Cuban exiles dictated the agenda which determined the relations between the two countries.

The results of the recent election for the Legislative Assembly and local authorities, celebrated on March 12, 2000, indicate a significant advance for the Left, within the context of a virtual draw at the national level between the two main political forces in the country: the Republican National Alliance (Arena) and the Farabundo Martí Front for National Liberation (FMLN), with the former defeating the latter by a scarce 10.000 votes. In order to interpret this result it is necessary to analyze the results between 1994 and 2000, to identify the tendencies and speculate about future prospects.

In the current context of vertiginous and generalized changes, it is well to remember the role always played by values and social customs in national communities. In Brazil, as in the rest of Latin America, there is a tendency toward a more impersonal relation to the State but a greater personalization of government. These tendencies reflect profound sociopolitical changes and are simply the most visible aspect of contradictory tensions about the way to assume public and collective life, and social and group identities. An analysis of these problems can help us to face the dilemmas posed by current proposals for political and State reforms.

The military exercises in the Puerto Rican island of Vieques began in the 1940s but it was as recently as the late 1970s when protests began against the damage to the environment and the negative effects on local civilian life. More recently the opposition to the military maneuvers of the North American navy have multiplied, especially after the death of a member of the Civil Guard. A heterogeneous alliance of Church members, neighborhood groups, professional associations, trade unions politicians and prominent personalities conorms a majority opposed the use of the island for military purposes, despite the attempts of the current Puerto Rican government authorities to gain time in the hope that an eventual Republican administration in Washington could ensure the continuation of the current practices.

Neo-Zapatism in Chiapas is one of the collective phenomena which has enriched the current theoretical debate over social movements. This article starts by discussing significant aspects of the movement and interpretations of its identity, strategies, demands and discourse with a view to situating it within the context of a structural dynamic which acquires new features. The conformation of a "community identity as resistance" seems to mark a transition toward a new scenario in which future prospects will depend on its flexibility and structural fluidity. (Post) Neo-Zapatism is being transformed into an emancipating challenge which transcends the movement itself and which, at the same time, enhances its significance.

The Peruvian elections this year have demonstrated, amongst other things, the actuality of popular and democratic demands that have almost a century of history in our continent. The political crisis provoked by the authoritarism and manipulation of the Fujimori regime, together with the popular mobilizations against them, offer undeniable evidence of the urgent need for emergency measures in order to facilitate a democratic alternative. Whatever the way in which the crisis is resolved, the majority resistance to the regime is undoubtedly a milestone in the struggle to recover democratic values.

The Peruvian elections in 2000 represent the coronation of the "legality of the new epoch" which has been progressively consolidated during the course of the Fujimori regime. The experience, together with its combination of abuses, cynicism and formality, needs to be taken into account in the region. It also provokes theoretical problems, such as how to interpret the Peruvian experience in relation to the so-called consolidation of democracy or the third wave of democratization.

Toward an International Financial Reform. Five Essential Themes

Without doubt, the most notable weaknesses of global governability in the economic sphere are related to the institutionalization of financial flows. The financial crisis from mid-1997 to early 1999 which affected from South-East Asia to Brazil, together with the earlier "Tequila" crisis which hit Mexico and Argentina, were clear demonstrations of the enormous disparity between a financial world which is increasingly sophisticated, but highly unstable, and the institutions which regulate it. In other worlds, they indicated the urgent need for appropriate institutions for the current process of financial globalization.

Key Words: international economy, financial markets, governability, developing countries.

The irregularity of short-term capital flows has become a potential Aquiles' heel for the world economy and for the market economy in the developing countries. In this, as in other cases, it is better late than never. Measures must be taken to anticipate the crises and their effects. Institutional adjustments can be made and the deficiencies in regulations overcome. The international financial organisms need to be provided with new mechanisms adjustable to the conjuncture, such as the "ghost programs" which, by way of a preventive conditionality, could encourage countries to assume measures against the speculative cycles.

One of the elements of conventional economic wisdom is that the key organizations which affect the world economy, like the IMF or the United States' Treasury Department, function on the basis of criteria rooted in solid research and the best available evidence. But the best economists do not work in these organisms. Nor is it true that these organisms propose or impose the most adequate or reasonable policies. In fact, the United States imposes on the rest of the world economic policies which are often illconceived and anyway undemocratic, so that protests like those of Seattle in 1999 or Washington in 2000 are perfectly understandable.

The reorganization of the international financial system tends towards the adoption of management models based on international agreements which favor the process of internationalization and improve the mechanisms for monitoring internal macroeconomic policies. Nevertheless, the possibilities of development for the peripheral countries require a more radical reform of the international financial institutions, above all in relation to short-term capital flows. Brazil's participation in the negotiations over the way to define the "new architecture of the international financial system" has been very limited. In the current government, the prevailing emphasis is on a strategy of greater insertion into the international system, adapting itself to the requirements even when this means sacrificing economic development. Its participation in the international forum which are negotiating changes has been no more than marginal.

Economic Opening and the Control of External Capital Flows in Chile

Chile was one of the Latin American countries hardest hit by the economic crisis of the eighties precisely because of the extreme liberalization of financial flows and the absence of regulations. The system of controls subsequently introduced enabled it, however, to confront without difficulties both the problems provoked by the Mexican crisis in late 1994 and the financial impact of the Asian crisis in 1998-1999. Liberalization and regulation were made complementary by way of simplifying the introduction of capital dedicated to productive investments or with longterm commitments. This policy reduces the impact of financial volatility and proves even more effective if there is a solid macroeconomic situation.

The author analyzes the options for reorganizing the international financial system, and particularly the proposals for a control over capital flows, on the basis of the discussion in Mexico. Since 1994, the Mexican financial system has been undergoing a serious crisis, characterized by lack of liquidity and an excessively bloated proportion of unrecovered debts. This has favored an increasing concentration of property, a greater participation of foreign banks and the necessity of massive rescue operations. At the same time, within the NAFTA, it is implicitly assumed that Mexico can rely on extraordinary financial aid if its crisis gets out of hand. In this context, there have been discussions about the possibility of a Monetary Council. Meanwhile, the Mexican government has supported a policy of free mobility for capital and has even opposed the use of the short-term controls contemplated in the NAFTA.

It is difficult to imagine a country which ought to be more profoundly committed to the elaboration of a new international financial system than Argentina, which has a vital interest in the stability of the international financial markets. Nevertheless, there has been no discussion of the issue in the country and there are no more than sporadic references to the initiatives which are under way. This same paradoxical situation can be observed in relation to the Convertibility Plan which is in force in the country. This article examines the relevant aspects of economic activity, the nature of public discussion and the motives which explain the government position and concludes that, in relation to this theme, the participation of Argentina tends to be passive and conservative.

This article attempts to define the possible terms of a new cooperation for development within the context of globalization. The authors propose a new vision of cooperation which implies a greater integration of Third World countries into the incipient system of international institutions while, at the same time, strengthening those domestic political and economic factors favorable to development.